Prediction: Extreme Global Poverty Will Likely Remain Above 375 Million by 2035 (82% Probability)
Despite relentless efforts to eradicate poverty globally, evidence indicates that by 2035, the number of people living in extreme poverty will probably remain above 375 million, with a high confidence level and an estimated probability of 82%. This projection stems from a complex interaction of factors including revised poverty definitions, demographic dynamics, climate challenges, and lingering pandemic effects, which collectively pose significant barriers to achieving this ambitious target.
One fundamental aspect underpinning this forecast is the World Bank's 2025 revision of the international extreme poverty line. Increasing the threshold from $2.15 to $3.00 per day recalibrated the global poverty baseline upward by over 125 million people. As a result, the global count of those in extreme poverty rose substantially—from about 692 million under the old definition to between 817 and 847 million in early 2026 figures. This new baseline drastically elevates the scale of the challenge, making reductions much harder to achieve when compared to past metrics.
Mathematical analysis illustrates the steepness of the task ahead. Achieving a reduction from approximately 847 million people in extreme poverty to the target of 375 million within nine years requires a sustained Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of nearly 7% in poverty reduction. Historical trends and recent data demonstrate that such rates are unprecedented and unlikely. For instance, World Bank projections for 2030 estimate around 622 million people remaining in poverty, reflecting a modest annual reduction rate of about 6.1%, which itself falls short of the required pace for the target year 2035.
The demographic reality, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, serves as a formidable impediment to faster progress. This region houses the majority of the world's extreme poor and is experiencing rapid population growth, projected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050. While economic growth projections there are positive but modest, growth on a per capita basis is limited. Combined with the prevalence of fragile and conflict-affected states, this creates persistent poverty traps where macroeconomic advances fail to substantially reduce poverty levels.
Compounding these demographic and economic challenges is the increasing impact of climate change, which the World Bank estimates may push an additional 130 million people into extreme poverty by 2030. Climate hazards like droughts, floods, and extreme heat disproportionately impact the poor, damaging livelihoods and undermining economic gains. This creates a negative feedback loop that further complicates sustained poverty reduction efforts required to meet the 375 million threshold.
Furthermore, the post-pandemic recovery from COVID-19 has proven slow and uneven. The pandemic reversed historic poverty reduction progress, with global extreme poverty rates increasing notably in 2020. Although some recovery is underway, the pace remains sluggish, with global poverty rates decreasing only modestly between 2022 and 2025. The confluence of supply chain disruptions, energy market volatility, and other geopolitical factors contributes to this slower momentum.
Alternative scenarios where poverty could fall below the 375 million mark do exist but depend on extraordinary shifts. These include rapid technological advancements in green energy and agriculture particularly benefiting Africa, unprecedented global coordination for aid and debt relief targeting fragile states, or a substantial mitigation of climate change impacts. However, such events represent significant deviations from current trends rather than continuations.
In conclusion, while ongoing efforts will continue to reduce extreme poverty, the combination of an elevated poverty baseline, structural demographic trends, climate-related setbacks, and the lingering aftermath of the pandemic makes achieving less than 375 million people living in extreme poverty by 2035 a mathematically and practically improbable outcome. This underscores the need for renewed, concerted efforts and innovative solutions to confront the evolving poverty landscape effectively.
